Monday, March 17, 2008

Delegate Geek-Out Update

It's not clear if the Slate delegate counter includes the nine additional delegates Barack Obama picked up from Iowa, but it does now include the possibility of re-votes in Michigan and Florida.

The delegate math heavily favors Obama over Clinton. Assuming Michigan and Florida hold re-votes, Clinton would need to win every outstanding contest by a 59-41 margin just to catch up with Obama. And note that she only got 55% in Michigan when Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot; and she got only 50% in Florida when Obama didn't campaign there.

She is not going to win every outstanding contest, let alone by a 59-41 margin. Obama will win several of the upcoming primaries. Clinton is not going to make up this ground based on the popular vote. The 64% question remains urgent and unanswered -- if indeed it's still only 64%.

3 comments:

mikesdak said...

Here's some barely sensible pure speculation.....
Once in while, when she can't sleep or she's on one of those long,boring trips from one campaign stop to another, Hillary thinks about Obama, a charismatic newcomer to national politics with a strong wife and a message of change, and her mind drifts to another man,one who got her where she is today, but who has also caused her deep emotional pain. A man who continues to be a mixed presence in her life. A man who,if it were allowed, could take the nomination with an ease of which she can only dream.
So she keeps going in order to try to purge the demons, no matter the cost to the party, which she knows would instantly abandon her for him if it were possible.

How's that for some twisted motivational analysis?

Dale said...

Well Mike, it's at least as plausible as others I've heard. There's certainly some "abnormal psychology" at work -- that she's topping out at half of registered Democrats (often not getting that), and only winning (when she does win) because Republicans are crossing over to ensure a weaker candidate, would tell a sane person to call it quits. There is something beneath sanity at work here.

mikesdak said...

I think it's actually moderately simple; she's doing it because she just can't stop. She's been scrapping and clawing for most of her adult life, and she dosn't know anything else. It's also worth noting that it's been a long time,if ever, since a Clinton lost an election, so she's not familiar with the territory.