Tuesday, April 1, 2008

65% Is the New 64%

The Slate Delegate Counter, a.k.a. the Hillary Clinton Campaign Doomsday Clock, does not yet (as of this writing) reflect the fact that Obama won Texas by a delegate count of 99-94. This net gain of two delegates for Obama means that, in order to pass Obama in delegates by the end of all the voting, Clinton must win 65% of the popular vote in each of the remaining races.

Of course, this includes races in North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, where she is not expected to win, let alone by 30 points, even with the help of Republicans attempting to game the system in her favor.

Even in states where polls have Clinton in the lead, such as Pennsylvania and Kentucky, she has no realistic prospect of winning by 30 points. The latest polls show her considerably short of 65%.

Even some of Clinton's supporters are starting to admit publicly that she will not win.

In politics as in life, reality bats last. Clinton will not win this: she will not catch up in delegates, nor will she overcome Obama's 700,000 popular vote lead.

She should look for a graceful exit to spare herself the ignominious version.


Domestically Challenged said...

Well, this Clinton supporter publicly admits she can't win. I think it's time to throw in the towel and stop wasting money.

I don't quite understand the vehemence of many of her supporters to keep going. I would understand if Obama weren't up to par (as in a true wrong choice), and we were fighting for the better candidate, but he is up to par and there's no doubt about it! I personally just feel Hillary is the safer choice, not the better one.

At this point in the game, I think if she did win (and she won't) through Super D. votes the resulting party rift would be disastrous!

Dale said...

Sigh. I am working very hard not to despise Hillary Clinton for all this. I am trying to be forgiving and understanding and all. I know that I will have to take her side if she somehow becomes the nominee and she doesn't make it easy.

Obama is not perfect but the math is in and he has won this race. It's over. Really it is.

If she bows out gracefully, it can do the party a lot of good. And it can set her up to be the obvious first choice if something drastic forces Obama out of the race. It can also greatly increase her chances to be the running mate, whereas those chances decline with every passing hour under the current approach.

Whereas if she insists on clinging and holding out for every last vote and every last bullied superdelegate, she's only roiling the Democrats and alienating people who should be allies.

I don't see how holding out is smart in any way. I don't see it as smart principle or smart politics. I can understand the emotion of it but the brain needs to defeat the heart on this one.

Sigh again.