Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Bradley Ineffectual

I meant to look into this myself, but Glenn Greenwald has already done much of the work for me by posting the numbers that indicate the relevance of the Bradley Effect on yesterday's election.

I am using his numbers for the RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll averages and actuals; the FiveThirtyEight.com final poll averages are taken from here.


Based on these numbers in ten closely-contested and heavily-polled states -- how it must have sucked to live in Florida, Pennsylvania, or Ohio over recent weeks! -- the Bradley Effect was slight to nonexistent.

Based on RCP figures, Obama out-performed the opinion polls in all ten states.

Based on the FiveThirtyEight figures, Obama slightly underperformed the opinion polls in Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia. I put these figures in scary orange, but to the extent that it represents an actual Bradley Effect, it was pretty toothless.

Together with the election result itself, this a very good sign for race relations in the USA.

And check out FiveThirtyEight's final polling average in Ohio -- spot on!

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